Fishtrack Official Forecast


Updated: Tuesday July 2, 2013

BRIEF OVERVIEW: A broad trough of low pressure is expected to drift west across the Gulf for the July 4th Gulf Cup. This will set up moderate to fresh S/SE winds and unsettled weather over portions of the east and central Gulf for the event. Much lighter and more variable winds are forecast over the western Gulf.

DETAILED ANALYSIS: The Fishtrack/Buoyweather meteorology team continues to watch an area of unsettled weather over the eastern Gulf associated with low-pressure troughing both at the surface and aloft.

We expect broad surface troughing to drift W over the Gulf through the day of the Gulf Cup. As a result, moderate to strong S to SE winds and the main shower/thunderstorm activity will shift W over the Central Gulf. Contestants leaving out of areas between Panama City, FL and Venice, LA should monitor detailed forecasts on to see how this may impact local conditions. Generally speaking, an area of 15-25kt S/SE winds and 5-7ft seas is expected over portions of the region between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle. The potential for higher winds/seas also exists over this region in areas of enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. In addition, some of the computer models are indicating even stronger winds/seas over the North Central Gulf along with a closed surface low pressure system early Thursday – so please stay tuned for tomorrow’s update for further information.

Elsewhere, tamer conditions are currently forecast both well to the east and especially west of the above area over the Central Gulf. Much tamer winds/seas are likely for the far NW Gulf as a decaying frontal boundary leaves light NE to variable winds over the region and seas mainly less than 3ft. Please visit for detailed point forecasts.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK: The above-mentioned unsettled weather over the eastern Gulf is non-tropical in nature. Regardless of its classification, contestants should continue to monitor its evolution as it will likely lead to areas of enhanced S winds/seas and showers/thunderstorms south of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and SE Louisiana. Otherwise, the tropics are quiet at this time.


Figure 2. Mean sea level pressure, winds, and precipitation for the morning of July 4. This is from the GFS model, which is showing a more pronounced low-pressure area nearing Mobile, Alabama along with stronger SE/S winds. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s update for further info, as there are some differences in the models at this time.

Figure 3. MODIS AQUA Chlorophyll image taken yesterday (07/01/2013) showing clear water (blue) and dirty/mixed water inshore and south of the Mississippi river delta.

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